What’s happening in German politics right now, explained for Americans
Germany is about to get a new chancellor for the first time in 16 years. Why this change could mean major disruption to the German political status quo.
When I first moved to Germany from New York in 2017, the country was in the midst of federal elections. I spoke to friends and colleagues who were horrified at the rise of the right-wing AfD, Alternative for Germany (Alternative für Deutschland) party, decrying their supporters as facist imbeciles with no care for democracy or for their fellow man. Given the sudden shift to the right that had happened in the American election just one year earlier, I recognized their response as the same one I had seen in friends back home. They had similar fears and the same visceral sense of their country’s moral fabric being stripped away. Still, it felt different than 2016 America. The AfD, though they gained a share of seats in parliament for the first time in 2017, did not become the ruling party. Their leader did not become the head of the German government. In comparison to the drastic regime switch in the United States, the German elections of 2017 felt like a ripple on the water of an otherwise calm and predictable sea, that sea being the vast and seemingly unending reign of the CDU (Christian Democratic Union) and its sister party, the CSU (Christian Social Union), with their steadfast leader, Angela Merkel.
In the time since 2017, and particularly in the past year, this once calm and steady sea of CDU power has become increasingly turbulent. Now, as the country prepares for federal elections again this fall, the threat that the CDU/CSU’s16-year reign will end is very real — its grip on power threatened not from the far-right, but rather from tree-huggers and humanitarians: the Greens.
Starting with a brief explanation of German politics, we will look at the forces driving this seismic shift in German politics today, and what it could mean for German/American relations in the future.
Germany’s Political System
To understand how German politics are changing, we first have to understand how the political system works and how it differs from the American system. Like the US, Germany is a federal democracy, meaning it is made up of various states that have their own power and ability to enact laws at the state level. There are 16 German states, each with a leader (called Ministerpräsident), similar to a governor, and its own state legislature, like the US states have. At the federal level, Germany has a bicameral (2-chamber) legislature, also like the US, with a lower chamber similar to the House called the Bundestag where members serve 4-year terms, and an upper chamber called the Bundesrat. Only members of the Bundestag are elected directly; members of the Bundesrat are chosen by each individual state from their ruling parties. Thus, they do not serve fixed terms, and rather serve at the discretion of state leadership.
The head of government, called the Chancellor (Kanzler:in) is also not directly elected. Rather, she or he is elected by the Bundestag. In practice, this means that the head of the party that received the most seats in the Budestag will become Chancellor.
For the past 16 years, that party has been the CDU/CSU. You might be asking yourself now why the distinction exists, and what exactly the difference is between the CDU and the CSU. The CDU is the center-right party in Germany, and is active in all states except Bavaria. Bavaria has its own center-right party, which is the CSU. To understand how this works, imagine if the Democratic Party didn’t exist in Texas, and Texas had its own party called the Texas Democrats (given the state’s penchant for separatism, isolated energy grid, and obsession with flying its own flag, this isn’t that difficult to imagine). What would a Texas Democratic Party look like? Well, it would likely be very pro-Texas, and thus a bit more conservative on issues like states rights. However, it would also be unlikely to put forward its own candidate on the ballot for presidential elections — voters in Minnesota or New York would be unlikely to think that a candidate running as a Texas Democrat, rather than a “regular” Democrat, would fight for their best interest. Thus, the Texas Democrats would likely support the national Democrats in the presidential election, while still sending only Texas Democrats to state-wide offices like the Senate and House, where they would vote (mostly) in line with the “regular” Democrats to advance policy goals. This is roughly how the relationship between the CDU and CSU has tended to work since the end of the Second World War.
Although the CDU/CSU alliance has dominated German politics for nearly the past 2 decades, that certainly doesn’t mean that Germany is a one-party state. The CDU hasn’t had enough seats to govern on their own in quite some years. In order to pass laws, they have formed coalitions with other parties, namely the center-left SPD (Social Democratic Party). Other challenger parties have been slowly gaining seats, like the AfD in 2017, as well as the far-left party Die Linke (which literally translates to “The Left”), and the pro-business FDP (Free Democrats).
Another point worth mentioning about the German political system is that state and local elections happen on different days throughout the year, depending on the state. This will become important later one when we discuss what’s happened so far this year.
Current Political Sentiment and Signs of Change
It’s impossible to discuss the current changes in public opinion regarding politics in Germany without talking about the Covid-19 pandemic. The pandemic altered nearly every facet of our daily lives. It also hastened many trends that were already happening, like those towards remote work and studies and the popularity of travel by bicycle.
These societal trends seem likely to have had a hand in hastening a political trend that had already been brewing: that of the decline of the traditional center parties, and rise newcomer parties.
As in many other countries, like the US, the pandemic has shown fissures in the status quo of German social and political life. As in America, women took on more of the additional domestic duties brought on by closed schools and daycares. An underpaid and short-staffed system of care workers buckled under the weight of the additional burden, particularly in elderly care facilities. Many people in society began to ask the same questions being asked in societies around the world: Is there not a better way? Can the post-pandemic future not look different — look better — than the status quo from “BC” (Before Corona)?
As they were asking these questions, they looked to their country’s leadership for answers. What they found did not placate them, and rather gave them new reasons to worry. The CDU-led coalition government continually flip-flopped on Covid mitigation policy, often ignoring the latest scientific advances in favor of outdated methods. And then came the scandal.
Multiple members of the CDU were accused of profiting, to the tune of millions of euros, from kickbacks from companies they helped broker deals with to supply the country with masks. Multiple politicians from the party were accused of profiting, leading the public to lose trust in the party and making the scandal seem more widespread and less like a one-off issue of poor judgement by one or two politicians.
If the fallout from the mask scandal were all it had to overcome, the CDU/CSU probably wouldn’t have lost so much of the public’s trust. Unfortunately that wasn’t the case, especially not concerning the topic du jour: the second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic. Germany entered a strict lockdown in November, partially because of rising case numbers, and partially over fears of an “explosion” of cases from the B.1.1.7 “British” variant. Months into the lockdown, the public grew angry as the CDU-led government repeatedly backtracked, changed strategy, and pushed the yardstick for re-opening further and further away. The 7-day incidence rate needed to re-open outdoor dining, for example, bounced from 50 cases per 100,000 residents, to 35, then to 100. The government also fumbled its nationwide testing rollout, and, like the rest of the EU, its vaccine campaign.
At the same time, the party was split by bitter in-fighting over who would become the next Chancellor candidate. The CDU narrowly voted for Arnie Laschet over Friedrich Merz, a more right-leaning figure with a history of gaffes that would rival those of Prince Phillip. Even after Laschet was chosen to lead the CDU, the “Chancellor question” wasn’t answered: the leader of the CSU, Markus Söder, expressed his interest in leading the sister-party partnership, citing higher poll numbers supporting him over Laschet. But remember the “Texas Democrats” example I gave before — although he was generally popular at the time, few in the CDU/CSU parties felt that Söder could succeed on a national scale. Laschet was finally chosen as the CDU/CSU candidate following this very long and very public display of party disunity.
Still, Laschet remains unpopular as an individual, and the CDU/CSU remain unpopular as a party. So if people are losing interest in the CDU, the logical question is, to whom are they turning?
The Rise of the Greens
The answer is: they’re going Green. The Green party has been steadily gaining popularity in Germany since their (official) founding in 1993, fueled by an electorate that is becoming increasingly climate-conscious. This year, there seems to be an especially strong interest not just in the party, but also in their party co-leader and Chancellor candidate, Annalena Baerbock. She consistently polls higher than Laschet in polls that pit them against oneanother, and against Olaf Scholz, the candidate from the SPD party, which previously provided many chancellors but have lost considerable share in the past few years.
This has a lot of people talking, as it would be historic for many reasons. One reason is Baerbock’s age: at only 40 years old, she would be Germany’s youngest Chancellor.
A potential Green Chancellorship is also historic as it would be a first in Germany. Since the Second World War, every Chancellor (with the exception of Walter Scheel, who we won’t count since he ruled for a whopping 9 days…) has belonged to one of two parties: the CDU (Laschet’s party) and the SPD (Scholz’s party). A Green Chancellor would thus represent a stark departure from the status quo of the last half-century. This shift can even be seen in the first pages of the party’s platform (Wahlprogramm): the entire first chapter focuses on ecological goals, like transitioning away from fossil fuels more quickly and making it easy to live a climate-neutral life. Germany would be the first G7 nation to make curbing climate change its top national priority.
What would a Green Chancellorship mean for US-German relations?
America has long had a steady friend in Germany. Since the Second World War, US-German ties have been fostered by both parties, in both countries (the Republicans and Democrats in the US, and the SPD and CDU in Germany). This has remained true even as the Republican party in the US has moved further to the right and been openly more critical of Germany. Angela Merkel famously kept her cool when dealing with former President Trump, even after he called her a “loser”. However, it would be unlikely that a Green Chancellor like Baerbock would be so willing to tiptoe around and avoid confrontation with a future conservative US leader — if the German electorate votes Green this year, they will be voting for change. In the spirit of the loud-and-proud Fridays for Future demonstrations last year that helped advance the environmentalist agenda in Germany, they would likely expect their new leader to be unapologetically and unequivocally pro-planet. This could also lead to tensions even with the Biden administration, if they are seen to not be doing enough to stop climate change.
However, Baerbock’s past could reveal a soft spot for America and our Anglophone brethren across the pond: she lived in Florida for a year as a high school exchange student, and also has a master’s degree from the London School of Economics.
How likely is a Green Chancellorship really?
Polls currently show the Greens leading the CDU by about 3 percentage points.
The Greens are also helped by Baerbock’s personal popularity: another poll showed that she is the second most popular politician in Germany, after only Angela Merkel.
Even more evidence than these glowing polls exists in support of the Greens. Remember that state parliament and local government elections happen at different times of the year, depending on the state. In a Federal election year like this one, the state elections that happen earlier in the year are often seen as a barometer for checking how the public feels going into the Federal election. So far, 3 states have held elections: State parliamentary elections were held in Rheinland-Pfalz, and Baden-Württemberg, and local elections were held in Hessen. In all three states, the Greens gained significant ground over the incumbent parties.
What happened to the AfD?
As mentioned at the start of this article, there was significant fear of the rise of the right-wing AfD party after the last federal election in 2017. There were also fears of a possible further strengthening of the AfD following the rise of the so-called “Querdenker” movement. Members of the movement think of themselves as outside of mainstream politics and are particularly against state-sponsored measures put in place to prevent the spread of Covid, hosting multiple rallies and protests against mask mandates and social distancing protocols. Many members of the movement, which grew in strength over the course of the pandemic, were aligned with the AfD.
However, despite these fears of increasing interest in the AfD, the first 3 elections from this year have only shown significant losses for the party. Where are all of these former AfD voters and “Querdenkers” going? The answer is, nowhere. The vast majority of voters who voted for the AfD in the previous election in both Baden-Württemberg and Rheinland-Pfalz simply fell out of the political process altogether, deciding not to vote for any party this year.
Looking Forward
The question remains of whether the AfD will be able to win back their former voters who fell out of the political system. At the moment, it seems that excitement is a major factor influencing German politics: the Greens have a lot of excitement, which so far does seem to be paying off, in that this excitement is also translating to votes. Both the AfD and CDU/CSU seem to be unable at the moment to elicit the excitement and enthusiasm needed to drive people to the polls for them.
Only time will tell if the Greens can use this excitement to pull of an upset and unseat the reigning CDU. Even if they don’t take the Chancellory, the change in national policy focus they set off will not go away quietly. If not fully taken over by a Green wave, the steady sea of German politics will certainly take on a greener tinge.
